Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $237,878$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{290,870.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(290,870.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,408$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,278.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 61.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,278.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,521$ on 2020-07-04

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,303$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,194.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(49,194.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $365$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(31.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{368.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(368.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,995$ on 2020-07-04

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $204,610$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,707.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(183,707.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,206$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,866.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,866.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,912$ on 2020-07-04

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,354$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(60.1 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,952.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(137,952.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,368$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(0.84 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,270.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 134.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,270.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,909$ on 2020-07-04

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,857$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(476 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,696.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.7)}}\) (asimptote \(42,696.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $96$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(0.64 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,802$ on 2020-07-04

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $205,929$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,217.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 98.5)}}\) (asimptote \(289,217.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,858$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(46.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,964.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,964.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,815$ on 2020-07-04

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $99,183$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,249.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106,249.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 83.7)}}\) (asimptote \(172.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,673$ on 2020-07-04

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,106$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(222 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,543.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 119.4)}}\) (asimptote \(72,543.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $203$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(335.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,935$ on 2020-07-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Malaysia recovered 97%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Sri Lanka recovered 81%
Singapore recovered 78%
Qatar recovered 76%
Turkey recovered 75%
Kuwait recovered 43%
United Arab Emirates recovered 38%
Afghanistan recovered 38%
Tajikistan recovered 32%
Iran recovered 21%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,857$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.001t}\) (doubling rate \(219.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,252.2}{1 + 10^{-0.089 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(83,252.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,641$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(114.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,680.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,680.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $510$ on 2020-07-04

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,658$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,342.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,342.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(60.6 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 18.0)}}\) (asimptote \(117.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-07-04

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,091$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,405.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 17.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,405.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $283$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(106 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(273.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $976$ on 2020-07-04

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,074$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(247 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,236.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,236.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.12 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $178$ on 2020-07-04