Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $237,878$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{290,870.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(290,870.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,408$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,278.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 61.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,278.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,521$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,303$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,194.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(49,194.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $365$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(31.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{368.2}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(368.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,995$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $204,610$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(4.92 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,707.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(183,707.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,206$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,866.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,866.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,912$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $58,354$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(60.1 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,952.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(137,952.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,368$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(0.84 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,270.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 134.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,270.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,909$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,857$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(476 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,696.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.7)}}\) (asimptote \(42,696.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $96$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(0.64 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,802$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $205,929$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,217.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 98.5)}}\) (asimptote \(289,217.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,858$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(46.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,964.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,964.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,815$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $99,183$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,249.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106,249.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $123$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 83.7)}}\) (asimptote \(172.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,673$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,106$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(222 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,543.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 119.4)}}\) (asimptote \(72,543.9\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $203$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(335.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,935$ on 2020-07-04